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Research

Below is a reference list of the leading research on evaluating and controlling for house bias and measurement error in public opinion polls.

This is a growing list and we welcome any suggestions on works (journal publications, book chapters, working papers) that should be included.

  • Andersen, Robert, and John Fox. 2001. “Pre-Election Polls and the Dynamics of the 1997 Canadian Federal Election Electoral Studies 20: 87-108.
  • Buchanan, W. 1986. “ Election Predictions: An Empirical Assessment.” Public Opinion Quarterly 40: 220-27.
  • Converse, Philip E. And Michael Traugott W. 1986. “Assessing the Accuracy of Polls and Surveys.” Science 234: 1094(5).
  • Crespi, Irving. 1988. Pre-Election Polling: Sources of Accuracy and Error. New York: Russell Sage.
  • Crewe, Ivor. 2005. “The Opinion Polls: The Election They Got (Almost) Right.” Parliamentary Affairs 58: 684-98.
  • Curtice, John. 1997. “So How Well Did They Do? The Polls in the 1997 Election.” Journal of the Market Research Society 39: 449 (13).
  • Erikson, Robert S. and Christopher Wlezien (1999). Presidential Polls As a Timeseries: The Case of 1996. Public Opinion Quarterly, 63, 163-177.
  • Erikson, Robert S., Costas Panagopoulos, and Christopher Wlezien. 2004. “Likely (and Unlikely) Voters and the Assessment of Campaign Dynamics.” Public Opinion Quarterly 68: 588 - 601.
  • Erikson, Robert S. and Lee Sigelman. 1995. “A Review: Poll-Based Forecasts of Mid-Term Congressional Election Outcomes: Do the Pollsters Get It Right?” The Public Opinion Quarterly 59: 589-605.
  • Ferguson, Peter A. and Cristine. 2005. "Regulatory Compliance in Opinion Poll Reporting during the 2004 Canadian Election." Canadian Public Policy 31: 243-57.
  • Frankovic, Kathleen. 2005. "Reporting 'the Polls' in 2004." Public Opinion Quarterly 69: 682-97.
  • Groves, Robert M. 2004. Survey Errors and Survey Costs. New Jersey: John Wiley.
  • Ipsos-Reid. 2004. “For the Record: 2004 Federal Election Polling Post Mortem.” Toronto: online manuscript (accessible at <www.ipsos.ca>)
  • Jackman, Simon. (2005). Pooling the Polls over an Election Campaign. Australian Journal of Political Science, 40, 499-517.
  • Johnston, Richard, and Henry E. Brady. 2002. “The Rolling Cross Section Design.” Electoral Studies 21: 283-95.
  • Jowell, Roger, Barry Hedges, Peter Lynn, Graham Farrant and Anthony Heath. 1993. “Review: The 1992 British Election: The Failure of the Polls.” The Public Opinion Quarterly 57: 238-63.
  • Lau, Richard R. 1994. “An Analysis of the Accuracy of “ Trial Heat ” Polls during the 1992 Presidential Election.” The Public Opinion Quarterly. 58: 2-20.
  • Martin, Elizabeth A., Michael W. Traugott, and Courtney Kennedy. 2005. “A Review and Proposal for a New Measure of Poll Accuracy.” Public Opinion Quarterly 69: 342-69.
  • Mitofsky, Warren J. 1998. “Review: Was 1996 a Worse Year for Polls Than 1948?” Public Opinion Quarterly 62: 230-49.
  • Mosteller, Frederick, Herbert Hyman, Philip J. McCarthy, Eli S. Marks, and David B. Truman. 1949. The Pre-Election Polls of 1948: Report to the Committee on Analysis of Pre-Election Polls and Forecasts. New York: Social Science Research Council.
  • Perry, Paul. 1979. “Certain Problems in Election Survey Methodology.” The Public Opinion Quarterly. 43: 312-25.
  • Pickup, Mark and Richard Johnston. 2007. “Campaign Trial Heats As Election Forecasts: Measurement Error and Bias in 2004 Presidential Campaign Polls.” Presented to the International Symposium on Forecasting, New York City, 2007.
  • Pickup, Mark and Richard Johnston. 2007. “Campaign Trial Heats as Election Forecasts: Evidence from the 2004 and 2006 Canadian Elections.” Electoral Studies 26 (2): 460-476.
  • Traugott, Michael W. 2005. “Assessing Poll Performance in the 2000 Campaign.” Public Opinion Quarterly 65: 389-419.
  • Traugott, Michael W. 2001. “The Accuracy of the National Pre-Election Polls in the 2004 Presidential Election.” Public Opinion Quarterly 69: 642-54.
  • Vongdouangchanh, Bea and Kady O'Malley. 2006. “Inside the Poll Story: Who Got It Right, Who Got It Wrong, and Why?” Policy Options March: 68-73.
  • Voss, D. Stephen, Andrew Gelman, and Gary King. 1995. “A Review: Preelection Survey Methodology: Details From Eight Polling Organizations, 1988 and 1992.” Public Opinion Quarterly, 59: 98-132.
  • Wlezien, Christopher. 2003. “Presidential Election Polls in 2000: A Study in Dynamics.” Presidential Studies Quarterly. 33, 172-187.
  • Worcester, Robert. 1996. “Political Polling: 95% Expertise and 5% Luck.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 159: 5-20.